In my family nearly everyone has a high degree – other than one particular branch.
Photo: Freepik by rawpixel.com, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/
Empty wallet
Given my opinion of organized education is roughly that of organized crime I esteem my kin equally.
Aside from sheepskins, what matters most to me is whether a person is able to acknowledge the fact of their own ignorance; a trait mostly found in either the lowest or highest of the formally educated.
Which leaves the dreaded middle…ranging in the 95 to 105 IQ range…the midwits…the ACKSHULLYS.
These are the individuals with precisely enough information to be dangerous or even sometimes deadly – and ALL of them have many strident opinions which they are certain are unfailingly correct.
As for myself, I do not know much of anything…but I do consider several aspects.
Caveat to the Curious
Given that the world is being inundated with abysmally uninformed Controlled Media “experts” and Lay People “pundits”, we are going to review the recent Trump Tariffs for what they may portend.
You are invited to come along ONLY by accepting the following conditions:
- These are not by default my personal opinions,
- These are not necessarily the sole interpretations,
- These are not “conspiracy theories” but unorthodoxies,
- These are not the most likely outcomes yet are potentialities.
In order words, I herein tell what you are not being told…
First, Edumahcating The Ignorami
Given there is so much Pop History being repeated we need to clarify a few things, particularly since having some 24-year-old Newsreader with a degree in Women’s Studies giving “context” is pathetic.
1. Tariffs Did NOT “Cause” The Great Depression – In one week I have read this so many times I could wretch. It is not true. It is not even temporally accurate. It is an ACKSHULLY Argument, made by those with scant understanding of Economics…at best.
To wit, Black Friday, or Thursday, October 24, 1929, was the Great Crash. While the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed on June 17, 1930. So one of these preceded the other, chil’uns.
2. Okay, So What DID Cause The Great Depression – That is an enormous question without a concise answer. To be sure, tariffs were an exacerbating cause of the economic downturn.
Other equally important causes? Massive alterations to labor organizing during the decade, delayed intervention by the Federal Reserve in lowering interest rates until after the initial fall and, importantly but often overlooked, widespread trading “on margin” by the public; the last of these precipitating the conditions of mass selling which reinforced itself in a panic.
3. When Did The Great Depression End – That depends on the country. An ACKSHULLY Pop Historian will tell you it ceased with either Social Programs or preparation for World War.
The truth is Depression ended in Germany NOT by spending on re-armament but much earlier, by as many as two years according to most informed accounts. (I was gratified to hear Ben Stein say as much when some blonde newsreader repeated such a prior nonsense claim.)
In America, the Roosevelt Social Programs had limited effect and World War Two was largely the reason for the United States regaining its economic prosperity, albeit over some time.
4. Why Did We Fight Germany – That was an economic war, because from a purely economic view, Fascism works…only we can’t say that after we demonized Mustache Man for so long.
This isn’t specifically my opinion, by the way, but that of former Secretary of State James Baker, about as much of a connected “institutional man” as you could ever hope to discover.
Obviously, there were extreme social abuses in Germany…but nobody got involved until it became economic in regard to dominance and survival of the British and American systems – moreover, grab your garters Sportsfans, certain Asians are not “Communists” but Fascists.
Except we can not say that because the term has significant connotations among the public. But as a system of limited Private Enterprise coupled with State control over planning and wide Authoritarian societal restraints, it is a Fascistic rather than a Communistic paradigm.
Now, Pop Arguments Contrary The Trump Tariffs
Here we get to what you came for, Sportsfans; only we will take matters reverse order because it is easier to defuse incorrect allegations contrary these plans before explaining likely true purposes.
- Trump Needs The Stock Market – No. This presumes the President has certain interests (specifically, those similar to your own), which frankly is contrary to all available evidence. It is clear whatever his genuine goal, maintaining inflated prices for equities is not that intention.
- Republicans Will Lose The Mid-Terms – No. Or, that is, Yes but not for the reason you believe. A successful Presidential coalition almost universally loses the first Mid-Term, particularly when the same party controls the House, Senate and Executive; so it will happen regardless.
- The President Wants Reshoring of Manufacturing – No. It will take approximately two years in the “best case” scenario to build or retool manufacturing; assuming regulatory moderation.
- Donald Can Not Have a Third Term in Office – No. While an ACKSHULLY will tell you The Constitution bars such a possibility his “there are methods” comment meant something else.
Moreover, What Controlled Media Never Mentions
Appreciate your sticking with me, Chums. I loathed to present things this way, but it was necessary under the circumstances of ACKSHULLY Expert Misdirection. Because, next is really the bee’s knees.
So What ARE Possible Tariff Motivations? Some of these are complex, yet I’ll attempt to be brief.
1. The National Debt – Likely you have heard about this all your life, but it is finally becoming an issue which can no longer be much tarried. Last year for the first time in history the United States began spending more on Debt Service (i.e. Interest Payments) than on Defence. It may not sound like a big deal…but to Economists this is a very big deal. Yuge, even.
In addition, much as I disagree on some particulars, Elon Musk is correct in claiming Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme. Everyone you know hollers, “But I paid all my life! That money belongs to me!” Yet even if you paid in to it all your life, the typical beneficiary has used those funds within a few years…so, alas, not economically viable without many new payers.
(By the way, this author fully supports the SSA – but my support does not alter basic reality.)
Moreover, when Social Security began the average Life Expectancy for a male was 60 years and a female almost 65 years. Today those figures are a male 84 years and a female 87 years.
The National Debt is not, as popularly believed, owed to foreign nations – but primarily to the American Taxpayers in the form of obligations; and it is financed according to interest rates.
Basically, higher interest rates increase the cost of servicing that National Debt. The lower the interest rate, as set by the Federal Reserve, the lower the cost of and the greater the longevity of our government payments to service that debt.
If the Stock Market crashes, it is POSSIBLE that Trump hopes the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates. Indeed, in only a single week the consensus has gone from 1 or 0 rate decreases to now 4 rate decreases likely – hopefully you see where this is going, pals.
2. Tax Cuts – You may have heard about the “Big Beautiful Bill” which Trump wants to pass that includes tax “cuts” among other items such as border patrol funding and various detritus.
Importantly, that bill provides few tax “cuts” (one of which, admittedly, is no taxes on Social Security benefits and no taxes on tips, each generally regarded as insignificant economically).
What IS of consequence is that the Trump Tax Cuts of ten years ago are set to expire. The reason being, at the time Congress would only authorize them for a decade. If they sunset, this would be an exponential increase in taxes paid for by Americans; extremely disruptive.
The cost of tax cut extensions is unclear given wide-ranging estimates, but likely $4.5 Trillion during the next decade, with interest costs rising over $900 Billion, while increased economic activity may offset around $700 Billion of the total cost…leaving enormous sums to either be reduced or otherwise further offset – hence rate decreases to lower payments and…Tariffs.
Here is a tough metric to analyze because while Tariffs can be collected, the very use of them leads to less importation of goods. Best surmise is between $700 Billion and $1 Trillion in revenue being raised; which may be enough to get a “Big Beautiful Bill” passed by Congress.
Again, the governing political party (especially in unity years) typically loses the Mid-Term Senate or House, but if voters have a tax increase Republicans would DEFINITELY lose both; thus, it ought to be clear why a Trump Tariff gambit makes sense if defeat looms anyway.
3. Gaza Conundrum – Rumor in Washington is that Trump received contributions from interested parties to the doings in the Middle East to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars; specifically, the claim is made the quid pro quo was Gaza goes to the Israelis.
To date, all objective developments support this allegation. Coincidentally, as always, on the same day Trump announced his Tariffs, that is, Liberation Day, the Netanyahu government similarly announced a massive increase in military activity and taking of territory in Gaza.
(No commentary nor opinions given, Sportsfans, so do not imply – these are merely facts.)
Add this to the Trump Relocation Proposal and the infamous Gaza Video “liked” by just about every important person in Washington with a contrary view to the current status quo.
Perhaps you are thinking, “What does that have to do with these Tariffs specifically?”…well…
4. War Is Coming – If you read my piece last week, you are previously aware that one-third of the B-2 Stealth Bomber fleet has relocated to Diego Garcia, around 2500 miles from Iran.
The aircraft carrier USS Truman is already in the Eastern Mediterranean while the USS Vinson is heading there as we speak, it recently sailed past the Malacca Straight near Malaysia.
Additionally, the French aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle is approaching the Red Sea…which an ACKSHULLY Advocate will tell you is all one gigantic (you might say, bigly) coincidence.
(May I Have Another Sir Somerset? Well, okay…all these COINCIDENTALLY will rendezvous around the end of April or early May…PRECISELY the same deadline Trump has given to Iran.)
Obviously the Houthi villagers are posing an issue but this overwhelming buildup is scarcely justified by such a relatively minor threat as posed by this group popping off small rockets.
To date, Iran has refused direct negotiations with America over their purported nuclear weapons program, which Isreal is desperate to dismantle at the earlier possible time.
Likewise, Iran is entering a period of hyperinflation where the rial in 2025 is 1,000,000 to 1 dollar, when during the 2015 nuclear inspection agreement it was 30,000 rial to 1 dollar.
Conditions are now ripe for a “Syria Option” in which a Civil War is precipitated by a massive destabilization caused by military intervention, ostensibly due to the nuclear weapons issue.
Given that any Civil War would lead to large casualties, some workforce would be needed to later “help rebuild” Iran…and where are there 2 Million surplus people fit for the task? Gaza.
Should that be the plan, one would be desirous essential industries be reshored to the homeland. Additionally, increased oil prices of the kind resulting would kill the combustion engine, but that’s alright since the best good chum of the President makes electric cars.
Oh, and you recall the comment, “there are methods” to remain in the Oval Office a third term? Well, one of those ways might be the exigencies of becoming a Wartime President.
Possible, Plausible, Potential
Again for the ACKSHULLYS, none of this is to assert the above is the plan. In politics there are myriad factions, to say nothing of various individuals, who all have competing interests and motivations.
At the same time, the sole explanation given by ACKSHULLYS is that: A) Trump is stupid, and, B) His actions make no sense, followed by, C) He did Tariffs on penguins, Maw! Hardy-Har! Him a dummy!
(Er, as to the last, Trump was closing loopholes before they became looped in order the Chinese, or whoever, didn’t set up an island shop of “Made In” stickers to subvert fees; ever heard of the Clintons in Haiti?…No, an ACKSHULLY hasn’t…because they’re stupid…but it’s a port for sticker slapping.)
*ahem*
Perhaps all (or some) of these critiques make relatively logical sense, if you have the correct sensibility; either way, “Orange Man stupid!” is not a cogent review of developing events.
Notably:
- It is not an “opinion” that crashing the market will lead to lower interest rates which in turn will vastly increase the likelihood of the “Big Beautiful Bill” tax cuts becoming law.
- It not a “theory” that an unprecedented military aggregation is occurring in the Middle East at this moment…the same moment Iran refuses to negotiate…the same moment the current President owes a political favor – indeed, possibly his freedom – to benefactors contra Iran.
(By the way, Netanyahu will be visiting the White House a SECOND time in less than 100 days in office for Trump…an instance unheard of in the annals of international diplomacy.)
These are facts and what is discussed are reviews of those incidents based on the premise the proverbial “Most Powerful Man In The World” and his Best Buddy the “Richest Man In The World” are not doing things “just because” as the ACKSHULLYS would have you understand to be the case.
What To Do Today…By Which I Mean During April And May
Candidly, I made a good deal of money last week in the markets…by shorting the financials.
Now I am mainly in cash, as everyone with experience aside from myself seems to be.
Here is what I am watching for the coming two weeks:
- Trump Saying Anything of Substance – Not his blathering, but actual hard content; such as China and I have come to a definitive agreement to immediately reduce Tariffs. I do NOT expect this to occur for the reasons laid out above.
- Market Recovery Without Fundamentals – If the market rises based on “rumors” or “hearsay” in the Controlled Media leading to Wednesday, April 9, Tariff imposition then I will be concerned that a “False Rally” is taking place. I have a modicum of confidence this may occur.
- China Tariffs Go Into Effect – Should this happen, I would anticipate extreme market volatility. Already millions of investors, conditioned to “Another New High”, have lost enormous sums. Given enough of the relentlessly dropping Retirement Plans, I fear a panic would then ensue.
- Tariffs Begin, War Follows – In event of a Market Crash due to China Tariffs and casual investor alarm we should await the age old political playbook to come in force, and a severe strike by the United States on Iran to follow as a distraction from the economic casino woes.
Vital to understand is that in the Worst Case Scenario there can be no further reliable predictions.
Specifically, in the event of a military action in Iran to bomb its nuclear reactors any outcome should be anticipated. By way of illustration – even if inadvertently, Iran managed to sink one of the three aircraft carriers the images would be live broadcast around the globe as hundreds of sailors perished.
Then, despite the low probability of success, ground troops might be utilized. The Straight of Hormuz, largely controlled by Iran, would be mined immediately with oil prices rising incredibly.
Again, this is clearly by far a low prospect circumstance, but it is far from an implausible situation.
Look On The Bright Side
As for the most beneficial outcome of the coming weeks? That some China concord is reached early.
But then, how does Trump pay for his “Big Beautiful Bill” tax cuts?
If not, what happens when a projected 62 percent of all Taxpayers see their bill rise?
Should Tariffs be called off, then interest rate cuts are far less likely, so what of the National Debt?
For a President elected with specific money and influence, how can Trump avoid reimbursement by way of the Gaza Relocation as was apparently vowed as a condition of that largesse from supporters?
Is the extraordinary redeployment of bombers, aircraft carriers and logistical vessels only a monumental bluff against some Houthi villagers in order to bring Iran to the bargaining table?
I do not know the answers, but these are all things which a considerate observer should question.
ACKSHULLY, you should have been doing so long before already.
Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America
