Iran calls conversations with us constructive and promising: what is behind such optimism?
Iran has described the recent round of indirect conversations with the United States as “constructive and promising.” Expert in the Middle East Boris Dolgov Explain the context behind these positive comments.
Photo: MEHR News Agency for Mohammadreza Abbasi, https://creativeecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Iran military exercises
After the first round of indirect negotiations with the American hero in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on April 13, Minister of Iranian Relations Abbas Araghchi He said that conversations with the special envoy of us Steve Witkoff It took place in a “spirit of mutual respect.” In a publication on social networks, Araghchi declared that Iran’s presented vision for the negotiation process regarding its nuclear program, and both parties agreed on continuous discussions on Saturday, April 19.
“These negotiations are the result of an ultimatum from the US Boris DolgovPrincipal researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, he said in comments to Pravda.ru.
According to Dolgov, Iran’s regional influence has been woven due to developments such as agitation in Syria and recent damage to allied slimming such as Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza) and Yemen’s hutis, part of the recent United States.
At the same time, Russia, despite having signed a strategic agreement with Iran, now seeks to improve relations with the United States.
“All this has pushed Iran’s leadership towards participating in negotiations,” Dolgov said.
He believes that conversations can lead to a commitment, since it is not of interest to increase tensions in a direct military conflict with the United States and Israel. Similarly, the United States is not anxious to launch a new war in the Middle East, given Iran’s important military capabilities and its potential for retaliation attacks.
According to Dolgov, the only part that will probably benefit from a military conflict would be Israel. However, he believes that President Donald Trump is unlikely to follow the example of Israel and, on the other hand, will follow a consensus policy.
Dolgov describes several possible scenarios for negotiations:
- He returned to the 2015 nuclear agreement, which Trump withdrew from his duration in his first mandate, this would imply that they will accept to freeze more uranium enrichment under international supervision.
- A new strict agreement, which allows broader access for international inspectors to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“That is also a key issue,” said Dolgov. “What facilities is willing to open to international observers, and which ones refuses.”
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (OIEA), the enrichment of Uranium of Iran has arrived 60%Well above the limit of the 2015 agreement, and dangerously close to the 90% Necessary level for the degree of weapons. The details of any new potential agreement even to negotiate, and the future conversations will determine how separate the sides are really.
Iran has a clear “red line”: he refuses to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure and will not completely give up its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, the ally of the United States Israel is disgusted with the direction of conversations and strongly opposes any flexibility sign of the Trump administration.
Detailed
On November 24, 2013 the Joint Action Planalso known as the Provisional Geneva AgreementIt was a pact signed between Iran and the country P5+1 in Geneva, Switzerland. It consists of a short -term freezing of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a decrease in economic sanctions against Iran, as countries work towards a long -term agreement. He represented the first formal agreement between the United States and Iran in 34 years. The implementation of the agreement began on January 20, 2014. The Joint Action Plan and the negotiations under it that followed anyone led to an April 2015 Framework Agreement and then to a final agreement of July 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan.
>
