Fyodor Lukyanov: behind the closed doors, the diplomatic games of the United States and Russia
The way to a possible settlement in Ukraine remains full of geopolitical tensions, however, the subtle changes in the dialogue between the United States and Russia suggest a narrowing of the different starting points of the frames. Fyodor Lukyanov, in this conversation with Glenn Dieen, describes how American and Russian frameworks to end the military conflict are joining.
In a recent policy statement published in Russia in Global Affairs, the Kremlin has reaffirmed its position that it will not agree to any ceasefire in Ukraine unless it is part of a broader, enforceable peace agreement. This stance highlights Moscow’s strategic priority of ensuring that any pause in hostilities leads to a long-term resolution rather than a temporary reprieve that could benefit Kyiv militarily.
Russian officials argue that a ceasefire without a clear, binding agreement risks repeating past failures, such as the Minsk accords, which Moscow claims were used by Ukraine and the West to regroup and rearm. The Kremlin appears wary of a tactical pause that could allow NATO-supplied forces to strengthen Ukraine’s position.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that Russia seeks guarantees — not only from Ukraine but also from Western powers — that any settlement would include recognition of Russia’s territorial claims and address its broader security concerns. These include NATO’s military posture near Russia’s borders and the status of Russian-speaking populations in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine and Western Response
On the other side, Ukrainian officials continue to reject any proposal that involves territorial concessions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated repeatedly that peace cannot come at the cost of Ukraine’s sovereignty or territorial integrity. Western leaders have echoed this view, supporting Ukraine’s demand that Russian troops withdraw as a precondition for any negotiations.
Implications for Diplomacy
This hardened position from Moscow indicates that the road to peace remains fraught with complexity. By insisting on a comprehensive deal before agreeing to halt military operations, Russia may be seeking to control the diplomatic tempo, forcing Kyiv and its allies into a corner where military fatigue could make concessions more likely.
Analysts warn that such a stance could prolong the war, as both sides remain entrenched in their positions. However, it could also set the stage for eventual negotiations — once battlefield conditions or international pressure shift the strategic calculus for either side.
