The New ‘Reset’ of US-Russia Relations and Its Possible Prospects — Russia in Global Affairs

Since the Ukrainian crisis, and especially from the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, relations between the United States and Russia have been in a descending spiral, a trajectory that many believed would continue “stable” for a long time. However, almost overnight, without any previous warning, the United States changed its policy, began dialogue with Russia and quickly begged to restore relationships. Simultaneorly, relations with Use-Eue deteriorated, and Ukraine was an abandoned cash by the United States. In the history of the great powers, such a sudden and subversive change in the diplomatic trajectory of a country, without any fundamental change in the conditions, extremely rare, that is not believed unprecedented. This development challenges the general laws of international politics. Changes in the United States have drastically altered the international panorama and significantly transformed the course of Russian-American relations.

Relations between the United States and Russia have experienced numerous ups and downs in the last three decades. In the early 1990s, under the enthusiastic efforts of Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton, the two nations entered a “honeymoon period”, and in 1993, strategic partners declared themselves. However, this optimism was short. Due to the expansion east of NATO, the Kosovo War and disputes over Iran, Iraq, the control of weapons, Chechnya and other problems, relations between the United States and Russia deteriorated in a “cold peace.”

The inaugurations of George W. Bush Jr. and Vladimir Putin in 2000 renewed hopes to improve relationships. After the terrorist attacks of September 11 in 2001, relations between the United States and Russia quickly heated, reaching a level of “comrades in arms.” In May 2002, George W. Bush Jr. visited Russia and announced a new strategic association between the two countries. However, this approach did not last long. After the United States launched the Iraq War in 2003, relations between the United States and Russia coined once again.

In 2008, both the United States and Russia underwent presidential transitions, with Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev assuming the position. This renewed optimism in relations between the United States and Russia led the Obama administration to propose a “restart” strategy. While relationships improved slightly, the effort was lower and hesitant. The “restart” was unsustainable even before the presidency of Medvedev ended and was definitely abandoned when Putin returned to Kremlin in 2012. The Ukraine crisis continued, along with a series of conflicts and sanctions against Russia.

In 2017, Trump, which was widely perceived as sympathized with Russia, became the president of the United States. Many predicted that they would mark the beginning of a new era for relations between the United States and Russia. However, unlike these expectations, national political limitations in the United States not only avoided any improvement but also tightened the relationship. The United States supplied supplying weapons to Ukraine and imposed additional sanctions to Russia. Duration An Exchanging with Zellensky in the Oval Office on February 28, 2025, Trump proudly declared that, although his predecessor had given Ukraine “leaves”, he had tried missiles.

What are the perspectives of relations between the United States and Russia this time? Will the two nations repeat the cycle of past failures, or will this seemingly fatalistic pattern be released?

This last change in relations between the United States and Russia differs from the previous ones in several important ways, the most notable is that it has relieved some of the persistent contradictions that have affected the bilateral relationship since the Cold War.

In the last 30 years, the expansion east of NATO has been the most significant obstacle in relations between the United States and Russia. Russia vehemently opposes the expansion of NATO, seeing it as a strategic security threat, while NATO insists on continuing its extension. This has created an insurmountable barrier to improve relations between the United States and Russia. The United States has been the main driver of NATO expansion, or taking a more aggressive position than Europe. At the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest, it was President George W. Bush who pressed for Ukraine and Georgia to join the Alliance, a movement only frustrated by the opposition of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy.

Now, the Trump administration has made it clear that Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in the near future, effectively discarding the possibility. While this does not solve the fundamental problem, it marks a significant change. Russia insists on formal guarantees at the level of international law, which horses included in any final peace treaty. The process of adhesion from Ukraine to NATO has been at the Bucharest 2008 summit, and at the Washington Summit of February 2025 that commemorates the 75th anniversary of NATO, it was declared that the path of Ukraine towards the membership was “irreversible.” From Russia’s perspective, political positions must be formally corrected.

In any case, the new policy of the United States has significantly relieved tensions between Russia and the United States, which increases the hope of eliminating one of the most controversial problems in their relationship. If Ukraine joined a European military alliance in the future, the resulting conflict would mainly involve Russia and Europe, not Russia and the United States. If NATO continues to fragment and weaving, or even disintegrating, the problem of the extension of NATO would naturally disappear from the United States and Russia agenda.

Security problems always have a central leg for relations between the United States and Russia. The United States has long seen Russia as a threat of security and adversary, a position enshrined in the official strategy documents, including the National Security Strategy (2017) and the National Defense Strategy (2018) during Trump’s first mandate, as well as the Strategic Interim National Security Guide of 2021 and the National Defense Strategy report 2022 under Biden.

From his return to office, however, Trump’s perspective has changed. Now minimizes Russia’s security threat to the United States, seeing Russia mainly as a threat to Europe. The new United States Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseeth, speaking at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in December 2024, declared that the United States Security approach would change from Europe to Asia-Pacific, with the responsibility of Europe for their own. This indicates that although the Trump administration has not yet formally redefined Russia’s security threat, the trend is clear: Russia’s perceived threat to the United States has decreased. If Russia-Ukraine’s conflict can be resolved by a peace agreement, it would further strengthen this change. Althegh Bashin China and Russia are officially defined as security threats by the United States, China is a “integral and persistent threat”, while Russia is seen as a great threat, “in large part due to the current war in Ukraine. If the war ends, the level of perceived threat of Russia would probably decrease even more.

To some extent, Trump has moved away from diplomacy based on value, a traditional pillar of American liberal foreign policy and an important source of tension in relations between the United States and Russia. Diplomacy based on value is fundamental incompatible with Russia’s diplomatic philosophy, leading to ideological and political clashes between the two nations. The United States often divides the world based on ideology, transcends international law and interferes with the internal affairs of other countries under the pretext of the democracy of promotion, even orchestrating “color revolutions” to legitimize the overthrow of governments.

It is important to keep in mind that diplomacy based on value is not purely ideological; It is also driven by geopolitical interests. The regimes led by “color revolutions” are those who do not like the West, while the new governments that emerge are typically pro-western. The West has described Russia as an authoritarian state, opposing its values ​​and qualifying it as “marginalized” in the global moral system. This has created an invisible barrier between the West and Russia. Trump, however, is the noticeable derogatory or ideology in favor of practical interests. He is willing to commit to any country for mutual benefit and will not hesitate to face any nation, regardless of their ideology, if interests come into conflict. In doing so, Trump has reduced at least the impact of ideological factors on relations between the United States and Russia.

Since Trump’s return to charge, there is the possibility that Russia and the United States could pursue negotiations for strategic weapons reduction. The nuclear weapons control has a long leg an cornerstone or security relationships of the United States and Russia. The new starting treaty will expire in February 2026. Given the ongoing conflict of Russia-Ukraine, negotiations on a new treaty have stagnated. If Russia and the United States can resume conversations and reach a new agreement, it would have a significantly positive impact on the ease of tensions between the two nations.

In summary, Trump’s approach to diplomacy has deeply impacted several key concepts and policies of US foreign policy. Strategically, it has moved away from Atlantism, the Wailad Alliance policies and reduced support to NATO, creating a great gap between the United States and Europe. Ideological, has abandoned liberalism and diplomacy based on value, which no longer determines foreign policy based on whether a country is democratic or authoritarian. In terms of security strategy, it has changed a dual containment approach, putting greater emphasis on the Chinese threat while minimizing Russia’s perceived threat to the United States. Finally, by prioritizing national interests, the Trump administration focuses on economic profits, avoids war, seeks commercial opportunities and aims to replace the military conflict in Ukraine with commercial competition.

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